A intently watched derivatives strategist expects Bitcoin’s subsequent main transfer to start with a violent brief squeeze, solely to flip right into a punishing “lengthy entice” as October opens—a sequence he argues rhymes extra with late-2023 than with the euphoric blow-offs of March and December 2024.
In a thread posted on September 12 and expanded over the weekend, analyst Nik Patel (@cointradernik) mentioned the present positioning backdrop “is much less like March and Dec ’24 crossovers and extra like Dec ’23,” warning that the market is about up for a “multi-week whipsaw going into early/mid Oct.” He added a particular liquidation map: “Give me $1.5bn in shorts liqs on the weekly after which $2.8bn of lengthy liqs into Oct seventh pls.”
— Nik (@cointradernik) September 12, 2025
What Is Completely different This Time For Bitcoin?
What makes this setup completely different, in his view, is the stability between spot and derivatives flows and the breadth of foundation trades. “Spot vol as % of complete vol [is] decrease right here than prior crossovers for Others OI vs BTC OI (March ’24 and Dec ’24),” he wrote, arguing that if spot demand had been really within the driver’s seat “we should always anticipate spot vol as a % of complete vol to be greater not decrease.”
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As an alternative, he sees “a mixture of foundation commerce throughout a broader vary of markets than simply BTC & ETH but additionally extra directional levered shorts than prior events,” with the quick “upside threat… even larger for a brief liq cascade first.” Funding, he famous, is “benign” relative to these earlier peaks.
Actual-time funding knowledge broadly corroborate the “benign” characterization. Throughout main venues, BTC perpetual funding hovered near flat in current periods—usually within the +0.005% to +0.01% per-8-hour vary—nicely beneath the overheated prints typical of euphoric tops. That retains the door open to a squeeze with out the necessity to first unwind excessive lengthy leverage.
Sentiment, Nik argued, remains to be nearer to “disbelief” than euphoria. He contrasted March 2024’s ETF frenzy and December 2024’s post-election optimism with immediately’s extra skeptical tone, pointing to a still-elevated pool of sidelined capital. “Each prior crossovers had stablecoin dominance trough at 5% ish. We’re at the moment at 6.1% — imo that is textbook disbelief/Sidelined September positioning,” he wrote.
In his base case, that warfare chest finally fuels year-end risk-taking as soon as the whipsaw performs out: “We’ll nearly definitely get the positioning whipsaw and bear entice throughout that quarterly finish & month-to-month open window of weak point, however there are much more stables able to be deployed right here into year-end.”
In a self-aware apart, Nik even shared a machine-generated distillation of his view: “ChatGPT coming to an identical conclusion right here after I fed all these charts in, idk if that evokes confidence or concern about my view although lol.”
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ChatGPT wrote: “Previous crossovers: signaled end-phase altseason blowoffs, fueled by euphoric longs with no dry powder left. This crossover: alerts pre-phase potential — leverage is already there, however it’s balanced/shorter, with capital nonetheless on the sidelines (stables). For this reason the funding differential is so vital: • Excessive funding + low stables = top-like circumstances. Low funding + excessive stables = squeeze-ready circumstances.”
Famend crypto analyst CRG (@MacroCRG) consented: “Agree with him {that a} large brief liq occasion is probably going earlier than a giant lengthy liq occasion nonetheless numerous positioning to unwind imo from ppl anticipating a bearish September. In saying that, would really like the cash to bounce quickly, many are at/close to key pivots.”
As ever with path-dependent derivatives tape, the set off issues. Nik cautioned {that a} “large brief liquidation occasion” within the coming week might flip the script if it invitations “late longs” and spikes funding into October. However absent that sudden shift, his base case stays a two-step: an upside liquidation cascade that resets shorts, adopted by a rug-pull on over-eager longs into the October 7 window.
Merchants waiting for affirmation will deal with whether or not funding stays contained as value lifts, whether or not spot participation really broadens slightly than fades, and whether or not stablecoin deployment reduces the money cushion he cites.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $114,852.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com