Ethereum’s rally this month has been sharp, however merchants are being warned to look at September carefully.
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Ether climbed about 20% because the begin of August, buying and selling at $4,745 on the time of publication. Costs even pierced $4,860 after dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the Jackson Gap symposium, a transfer that many in crypto see as a potential spark for extra positive factors.
Historic September Pullbacks
In accordance with CoinGlass, historical past provides a cautionary word: there have been solely three circumstances since 2016 the place Ether rose in August after which slid in September.
In 2017, Ether jumped 92% in August after which dropped 20% the next month. In 2020, August positive factors of 25% have been adopted by a 17% pullback in September.
And in 2021, a 35% climb in August gave solution to a 12% slip in September. CryptoGoos, a dealer on X, summed it up bluntly: seasonality in September throughout post-halving years tends to be adverse.
$ETH seasonality in September throughout post-halving years is often adverse.
Will this time be completely different? pic.twitter.com/h9hJ40V3np
— CryptoGoos (@crypto_goos) August 22, 2025
That sample doesn’t imply a repeat is assured. Reviews have disclosed that each market construction and investor profiles are completely different now than in these earlier years.
In 2016 and 2020, short-term losses in September have been adopted by multi-month recoveries, with Ether posting upside within the remaining three months of these years. So whereas historical past issues, it doesn’t resolve outcomes by itself.
New Cash, New Dynamics
Flows into spot Ether ETFs this month have been giant sufficient to seize consideration. Based mostly on experiences from Farside, spot Ether ETFs noticed roughly $2.70 billion internet inflows in August, whereas spot Bitcoin ETFs skilled about $1.2 billion in internet outflows over the identical interval.
On the identical time, firms that maintain crypto on their steadiness sheets now management a large chunk of Ether. Reviews present complete Ether held by treasury firms topped $13 billion in worth on Aug. 11.
Arkham reported that BitMine chairman Tom Lee purchased one other $45 million of Ether, lifting BitMine’s stack to $7 billion.
These numbers change the maths. Massive institutional stacks and ETF demand could make sharp, short-term strikes extra persistent than in prior cycles.
Capital seems to be rotating; Bitcoin dominance has fallen 5% over the previous 30 days to 55%, which market contributors principally attribute to funds shifting into belongings past Bitcoin.
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What Merchants May Do Subsequent
Merchants and portfolio managers will seemingly control macro alerts and move knowledge. A softer rate of interest outlook from Powell is a bullish issue for threat belongings, however seasonality and former post-August declines are causes to remain cautious.
Featured picture from Unsplash, chart from TradingView